Welcome back to Notes from the North: Winter Bracketology Edition! As the regular winter sports seasons draw to their close, I will take a deep dive into which Northern Arizona wrestlers as well as basketball and soccer teams will be playing in next week’s state tournaments, per the Arizona Interscholastic Association’s latest power rankings.

Wrestlers will lead off the column, since Division III teams, as previously projected, will continue to wrestle in their sectional tournaments as scheduled Saturday, March 13, in order to qualify for State. However, the ones in Division IV are not, since it went down last week that those sectional tournaments were cancelled.

This means that the regular season won’t mean as much to solid Division II boys wrestlers such as Flagstaff 145-pound senior Zachary Collins or Lake Havasu 182-pound sophomore Dorsett Spencer. It also means that most Northern Arizona wrestlers in Division IV will be holding their breath until Tuesday, March 16, when qualifying wrestlers will begin competing in the first of two consecutive days of the state tournament at Poston Butte High School.

And there are certainly plenty of deserving boys and girls wrestlers in the northland who have already made their claims to the best in their weight classes over not just the dual matches this season, but in years prior as state tournament competitors.

Those three criteria--overall winning percentages, head-to-head records from duals, and previous state qualifiers--will shape the selection process for the 16 qualifying wrestlers in each weight class, which means traditional powers with depth will be well-represented. 

Camp Verde, Mogollon, Round Valley and St. Johns high schools, for instance, will return a number of familiar faces. Holbrook, Page and Winslow will not lack for postseason representation either, but the three-loss Bulldogs are merely Northern Arizona's dark horse in the race for the Division IV team wrestling title.

St. Johns and Mogollon, who have each lost just two duals the season after their respective teams finished in third and fourth place at the 2020 state tournament, are the front-runners from the northland to push unbeaten Morenci High School for the Division IV overall crown. Northern Arizona’s leading boys wrestlers in Division IV, listed by weight class and dual record:

• 106: Max Foy, Winslow, senior, 11-0; Peyton Finch, Round Valley, sophomore, 8-2
• 113: Isaiah Aguilera, Holbrook, freshman, 10-1; Angel Casillas, Camp Verde, freshman, 15-2; Zach Ruiz, Page, senior, 4-0
• 120: Jackson McCall, Round Valley, senior, 13-0; Jason Ramirez, Holbrook, sophomore, 9-3; Izaiah Cordova, Winslow, junior, 8-3
• 126: Dion Perry, St. Johns, senior, 10-3; Steven Bahe, Camp Verde, junior, 10-6; Kinnly Colwell, sophomore, Round Valley, 9-4
• 132: Cael Porter, Mogollon, junior, 12-0; Wesley Scarbrough, St. Johns, sophomore, 11-1; Morgan Orona, Round Valley, junior, 11-3; Hunter Love, Holbrook, freshman, 6-3
• 138: Payton Reidhead, Mogollon, sophomore, 12-1; Peter Casey, St. Johns, senior, 9-4; Daniel Montijo, Holbrook, sophomore, 7-3
• 145: Malaki Porter, Mogollon, junior, 11-1; J.T. Richardson, St. Johns, sophomore, 10-3; Jared Gorda, Camp Verde, senior, 6-3
• 152: Ren Crosby, St. Johns, senior, 12-1; Tony Walters, Mayer, junior, 9-4; Samsel Yellowhair, Holbrook, junior, 4-1
• 160: Hunter Richardson, Page, junior, 4-0; Jace Chlarson, St. Johns, senior, 10-3 
• 170: James Thomas, St. Johns, junior, 13-0; Izaak Padilla, Winslow, junior, 7-3
• 182: Fisher Porter, Mogollon, junior, 13-0; Jacob Skousen, St. Johns, senior, 3-1; Cutter Williams, Round Valley, senior, 9-5; Logan Kurowski, Camp Verde, junior, 5-1
• 195: Gage Thomas, Winslow, junior, 11-0; Slade Nevins, St. Johns, senior, 11-2
• 220: Cylis Gonlzales, Winslow, senior, 10-1; Kyson Price, St. Johns, sophomore, 12-1
• Heavyweight: Nick Patterson, St. Johns, senior, 12-1; Aidan Lovato, Winslow, sophomore, 5-1

SOCCER (4A boys, girls)

The first round of 4A Conference boys and girls soccer, which begins Tuesday, March 9, at 6 p.m.--March 10 for the girls--will simply consist of travel to higher seeds. Same with the March 13 afternoon quarterfinals. The 4A semifinals will be either March 16 or 17 at Bradshaw Mountain High School or Scottsdale Christian Academy, with the championship to be played March 20.

All other information won’t be determined until the bracket selection show Saturday, March 6. Below is what known so far about the Grand Canyon Region teams in:

Prescott (boys No. 2, girls No. 1): Barring a loss Thursday, March 4, to No. 18 Bradshaw Mountain, the girls should hold on to their top seed and host a Phoenix team in the first round. The boys have lived more dangerously this season and still have some work to do, but they should make it at least to Bradshaw Mountain High School for the quarterfinals after maintaining home field advantage against a No. 15 seed.

Flagstaff (boys No. 5, girls No. 4): Beyond their 1-0 loss to Prescott, the girls’ only losses came out of conference. Their anticlimactic season finale comes March 4 at Barry Goldwater High School, followed by the real test, most likely against No. 13 Mesquite, to open the postseason.

But the boys team is where the suspense lies. After failing to score in a 0-0 overtime tie at what would be the last team into the 4A tournament, Estrella Foothills, the Eagles need to have a better showing Thursday, March 4, at eighth-ranked Notre Dame Prep. Otherwise, the teams could flip rankings and hosting the first round would not be a given.

Mohave (boys No. 11, girls No. 7): The Thunderbirds are an enigma. Each team has three losses. The boys lost to Flagstaff, Prescott and 5A playoff contender Lake Havasu, while the girls’ only losses came to Flagstaff and Prescott, twice. Both teams edged Lee Williams in their region finales, ascending above the Volunteers in the final region standings.

Beyond that, both teams could end up anywhere. The boys are more likely to open State in Scottsdale or Tempe, since they finish their season March 3 at West Valley Region champion Deer Valley High School. The girls could very well secure first-round hosting duties March 3 with a home win over St. Mary’s--or drop back into a road tournament opener with a loss.

Lee Williams (boys No. 14, girls No. 9): If you have been reading this far, you know that both of those rankings have dropped due to losses to Mohave.

How much further they drop will be key to determining who plays next week, and where. The 7-2 girls can redeem their loss to the Thunderbirds and snag a last-minute home opener in the postseason with a win March 5 at Dysart.

The 7-3 boys need at least a split of their final two games against Prescott and Dysart. Sweep those two, and the Volunteers are the dangerous team nobody wants to host in the first round. Get swept, though, and the Volunteers very possibly are done for the season.

BASKETBALL

With only a couple of games left on the top 3A and 4A teams' schedules, the good news is that most boys and girls basketball teams in the 1A through 4A conferences that have earned a place among the qualifying teams will stay there. The drama will merely consist of whether or not they open on the road or host in the first round.

The bad news? Pack a suitcase, and now, because the postseason is imminent. 

With a couple of exceptions--see below--the 1A Conference opens up first-round action the same time that 2A opens up tournament play: Friday, March 5, at 7 p.m. It’s all at the higher seeds from then on, at least until the 1A semifinals March 13 at Coronado High School in Scottsdale, followed by title games at a site to be determined. Rancho Solano Preparatory and Scottsdale Christian Academies will split 2A semifinal hosting duties March 18 and 19, with the 2A championships beginning at 5 p.m. March 20 at Coronado.

Wrapping up regular-season play are the 3A and 4A postseason players, who can otherwise relax until Wednesday, March 10, at 7 p.m., when all tournament games up to the championship play at the higher seed. Those conferences’ title games will be played March 20, with the 4A starting at noon at Coronado High School in Scottsdale and the 3A championships tipping three hours later at Mesa’s new Eastmark High School.

The intrigue is the thickest in 2A, where there will be 24 postseason seeds in each tournament, as opposed to the 16 boys and girls seeds in the other conferences. Teams ranked as high as ninth in 2A will need to earn their spot in the tournament’s first round March 10 by winning a play-in game first. 

Below are what I project to be likely opening matchups for Northern Arizona teams, seeds and regular-season records included. Please keep in mind that except for the 1A brackets, which are already live, these are my projections only, based on the AIA's power rankings. For all official seedings, sites and times, stay tuned to the AzPreps365.com bracket selection show on March 6:

1A boys 

• No. 15 Anthem Prep [6-8] at No. 2 Mohave Accelerated Learning Center [19-1]
• No. 13 Joseph City [9-5] at No. 4 St. David [14-3]
• No. 11 The Gregory School [8-5] at No. 6 El Capitan [12-2]
• No. 9 Duncan [14-5] at No. 8 Williams [13-4]

1A girls

• No. 14 El Capitan [5-7] vs. No. 3 St. Michael [7-2] at Joseph City High School, 2 p.m.
• No. 13 Mayer [10-7] at No. 4 Williams [12-2]
• No. 12 Desert Christian [9-8] at No. 5 Mogollon [8-4]
• No. 10 Fredonia [7-3] at No. 7 St. David [10-5]
• No. 9 San Manuel [7-5] at No. 8 Joseph City [7-8], 4 p.m.

2A boys 

• No. 24 Kingman Academy [8-9] at No. 9 Miami [10-5], winner at No. 8 Chandler Prep [10-5]
• No. 21 Round Valley [3-12] at No. 12 St. Johns [9-7], winner at No. 5 San Tan Charter [13-2]
• No. 20 River Valley [9-7] at No. 13 Morenci [6-7], winner at No. 4 Benson [12-1]

2A girls 

• No. 23 Northland Prep [4-12] at No. 10 Horizon Honors [8-4], winner at No. 2 Arizona Lutheran [17-0]
• No. 19 Desert Heights Prep Academy [6-10] at No. 14 Arete Prep [10-5], winner at No. 3 Sedona Red Rock [12-0]
• No. 20 Gilbert Classical [8-8] at No. 13 Phoenix Country Day [8-4], winner at No. 4 St. Johns [11-6]
• No. 21 Trivium Prep [3-10] at No. 12 Morenci [6-7], winner at No. 5 Round Valley [9-6]
• No. 17 Kingman Academy [8-8] at No. 16 Scottsdale Prep [9-8], winner at No. 1 Pima [16-1]

3A boys

• No. 15 Yuma Catholic [9-6] at No. 2 Snowflake [15-1]
• No. 14 Camp Verde [11-7] at No. 3 Winslow [13-2]
• No. 10 American Leadership Academy - Gilbert North [11-4] at No. 7 Page [10-4]

3A girls

• No. 16 Sabino [6-6] at No. 1 Page [14-0]
• No. 15 Wickenburg [11-6] at No. 2 Snowflake [15-1]
• No. 14 Blue Ridge [5-11] at No. 3 Holbrook [12-4]
• No. 11 Bourgade Catholic [12-4] at No. 6 Winslow [11-5]
• No. 10 Globe [10-3] at No. 7 Show Low [10-9]

4A boys

• No. 13 Prescott [10-6] at No. 4 Coconino [14-1]
• No. 9 Bradshaw Mountain [14-3] at No. 8 Deer Valley [13-2]

4A girls

• No. 16 Mohave [11-5] at No. 1 Sahuaro [16-0]
• No. 11 Combs [13-2] at No. 6 Flagstaff [16-2]
• No. 9 Coconino [10-3] at No. 8 Estrella Foothills [10-9]

Next time: The spring sports season opens in Northern Arizona, but which teams will play? If you have information on this or other stories about Northern Arizona prep players or coaches you feel deserve the spotlight, follow me on Facebook and Twitter at @ProfGWerner, or email me at gwerner@azpreps365.com.